Voting Intention – 6th July

6th July 2012

Labour have another double digit lead, this time just 10 points compared to their recent average of 11. Both parties have dropped slightly, Labour to 40% and the Conservatives to 30%. The Lib Dems and UKIP are both on 9% but rounding masks the fact that UKIP are again ahead of the Lib Dems with 9.49% for the purple party compared to 8.85% for the yellows.

  • David Cameron’s approval rating continues to suffer with just 29% approving while 54% disapprove, giving him net rating of -25% compared to -20% in the previous survey
  • Labour leader Ed Miliband has 25% approving of his job performance compared to 40% who disapprove giving him a net rating of -15%
  • While Mr Miliband’s net approval rating has been better than the Prime Minister’s since May, Mr Cameron has usually had much higher figures for approval with his net rating being dragged down by higher disapproval numbers. However, with Mr Miliband on 25% to Mr Cameron’s 29%, this is the closest the two men have been since Opinium started tracking approval ratings. As recently as February, Mr Cameron had 41% approving of his performance compared to just 17% for Mr Miliband
  • Nick Clegg’s net approval rating remains broadly constant on -44% with his approval remaining at 14% and disapproval declining to 58%

Topline Voting Intention

Liberal Democrats9+1
Other parties21+2

Other Parties (breakdown)

Plaid Cymru1+1

Approval ratings

% Approve% DisapproveNet ratingNet rating (own party)
David Cameron29%54%-25%+72%
Ed Miliband25%40%-15%+42%
Nick Clegg14%58%-44%+24%

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,956 GB adults aged 18+ from 3rd to 5th July 2012. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium?s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.