Voting Intention – 20th April

20th April 2012

The Conservative slide continues, dropping to 31% (their lowest in an Opinium poll since the General Election) and 7 points behind Labour on 38%. The Labour lead is the biggest Opinium have shown since September 2011.

  • The Liberal Democrats will also be relieved that after dropping behind UKIP for two polls they have climbed back into third place, taking 11% to UKIP’s 8%.
  • David Cameron’s job approval continues to fall (see chart below) with just 32% now approving of his performance as Prime Minister. Disapproval has ticked up to 52% giving him a net rating of -20%
  • While Ed Miliband’s approval rating remains poor (19% approve, 49% disapprove), his net rating of -30% is only slightly below his average for 2012 so far (-29%). In contrast David Cameron’s ratings jumped after his EU treaty veto but have been declining ever since and took a particular drop after the Budget in mid-March. His current net rating of -20% is far below his 2012 average of -7%
  • Although his party’s rating has improved slightly, Nick Clegg’s net job approval has gone from a rather terrible -41% to an even more terrible -47%, suggesting that both coalition leaders are taking a hit from recent government woes. The fieldwork for this survey also took place before the announcement that Britain has dipped back into recession so this news will likely cause the government’s ratings to take a further hit in our next survey.

Topline Voting Intention

Liberal Democrats11+2
Other parties20-2

Other Parties (breakdown)

Plaid Cymru1n/c

Approval ratings

% Approve% DisapproveNet ratingNet rating (own party)
David Cameron32%52%-20%+74%
Ed Miliband19%49%-30%+25%
Nick Clegg14%61%-47%+27%

Voting Intention Tracker

Party leader net approval ratings

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,233 GB adults aged 18+ from 20th to 23rd April 2012. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium?s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.