The winning combination

The winning combination

We went through a range of different combinations, but below we have included two likely scenarios. The first, where Labour and the Liberal Democrats square up against the Conservatives backed by the DUP and UKIP. The second, where Labour relying on SNP votes is pitted against the current coalition of Tories and Liberal Democrats.

In the first scenario, voters broadly preferred the Labour led coalition to the Tory one (45% vs 36%), while in the second scenario the current combination is the preferred option (46% vs 36%), with the Lib Dem voters swinging it either way.

The winning combination of parties?

One of the most interesting results from this is that only three quarters (75%) of Conservative voters preferred a cobbled together group of Tories, Unionists and Ukippers to a Lib-Lab alternative.

Any possible effect of UKIP or the DUP in a sense ‘de-legitimizing’ a Conservative government seems to be more than that on Labour voters when they were presented with the option of a Lab-SNP pact, as their support for the Labour-led coalition remains relatively high almost regardless of the likely partner.

Are the Lib Dems still the kingmakers?

Just as importantly, the support from Lib Dem voters is what either side requires to make their government the most preferred by voters at large. But how the votes cast at the ballot box will translate into seats makes this far from certain, and may rob the Liberal Democrats of their traditional position as kingmakers in a hung parliament.

The winning combination

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,964 GB adults aged 18+ from 21st to 24th April 2015. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.