Political Polling 4th September 2019
The Conservatives continue to consolidate their position despite the troubles the government has faced this week, hitting a 10-point lead over Labour at the Brexit Party?s expense.
The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35%, while the Brexit Party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1-point to 25%.
Leave voters returning to the Conservatives
The Conservatives? increasing lead is because they have successfully managed to convert Leavers from the Brexit Party back into the Tory fold. By comparison, Remainers have remained divided along the same lines since May, with neither Labour nor the Lib Dems successfully overtaking the other to become the one party of Remain.
There is currently a considerable amount of voter churn, with only the Liberal Democrats retaining an overwhelming proportion of their vote from last time (83% of 2017 Lib Dems would vote for the party again). Both the Conservatives and Labour are currently on track to lose votes to the Lib Dems amongst their Remainer wing and lose votes to the Brexit Party amongst their Leave wing.
However, the Conservatives currently have a sizeable lead because for the first time since the 2017 general election we are recording a direct shift in votes between the two major parties. Just over a fifth (22%) of Labour Leave voters are now intending to vote Conservative, prioritising Brexit over traditional party loyalties.