Polling Results

Biden leads Trump by wide margin in August

Former Vice President Joe Biden retains a commanding lead over President Donald Trump in Opinium’s second poll of the US presidential race.

Among those who are registered to vote, say they are certain to vote, and have made up their minds, the Democratic nominee leads the president by 15 points, 56% to 41%.

When those answering “don’t know” are factored in, Biden’s lead remains considerable with the numbers selecting “don’t know” or “some other candidate” statistically unchanged on the June wave:

The percentage selecting “other candidate” was 3% in June and 2% in August

The August survey was conducted following the end of the Democratic National Convention and overlapping with much of the Republican equivalent so may reflect a convention bounce for the Democratic nominee.

In separate polls conducted in Florida and Wisconsin, Biden led by 7 points and 12 points respectively:

Opinium surveyed 2,002 US adults aged 18+ from 21st to 26th August 2020. Interviews were conducted online and sampled and weighted to match the demographics of the US adult population as well as factoring in education level and past vote in recent elections. Separate surveys in Florida and Wisconsin included 1,009 Florida residents and 1,009 Wisconsin residents respectively with sample frames and weighting designed along the same broad outline as the national sample but with state-specific targets and factors.

Download the data tables for each state using the links below, the full report will be available on our website shortly.

National poll – data tables; Florida poll – data tables; Wisconsin poll – data tables

Link to Opinium’s June poll and report here.

To be notified of upcoming US research when it goes live, sign up here.